Episode #2: "Go Big or Go Home"

[devon]

Queen Erica and King Robbie have fallen!

Post your thoughts below.

[aubra]

Shocked it didn't end up being Miles but I guess he stepped it up a little socially and people were too afraid to work with Robbie based on his lack of any survivor knowledge. It makes me a little worried for Abby/Jenny moving forward bc I could see Georgina teaming up with the two guys but hoping her bond with Abby is strong enough that that doesn't happen. Hope Shannon/Miles leave if they go back to tribal bc the girls are bringing more to the table. I'm not too worried about Jenny I think she is recovering from her shaky start. She needs to continue her bond with Abby and strengthen her bond with at least one other person (probably Georgina) to make it through to a swap.

[mikeg]

Haven’t had much time to sit down and write anything up but I am following along with confessionals and the VL chat. I just want to say I STAN Sam and Biniam and want them to take this game. That is all for now

[andra]

It has been fun to follow along with the game so far. I think there are some players that are really bringing it in the gameplay dept such as Biniam, Sam, Emily, Abby, Georgina, and mayyyybe Carley and CJ. There are some that are bringing it in the entertainment dept such as Austin, Josh, Jordan, and Silas. Some who are just middle of the road and going with the flow - Jack, Jenny, Lee, Kollyn, and Elyse. Then there are the people that aren't bringing much at all - Kami, Nicole, Shannon, Miles, Waylon, Minga. They may be talking with their tribe but we aren't seeing much of anything at all from that last group.

Tribe rankings as far as potential entertainment:
Purple
<big gap>
Orange/Blue
Green

I can't wait to see their videos!

[devon]

I know it's early, but so many fun and interesting characters have been established this season that I'm already imagining who I'd be interested in seeing meet up at a swap. So with that in mind I give you...

Devon's Swap Wish-List

(A player can only appear a maximum of one time on this list)

#5

SPOILER: Click to show

ELYSE & GEORGINA




These are two of my favs and I see them being very complementary for each other. In my dream world, this duo meets Sam and Biniam for the first time at merge and are on opposite sides.

#4

SPOILER: Click to show

EMILY & DARK CARLEY



I would love for these two to duke it out, even though they'd also make fun allies. The Slytherin energy is heavy in both of these two and I want to see them fight for house supremacy. Actually, wait, this would mean that one of them would lose, which I also don't want. Gahhh this cast is so good.

#3

SPOILER: Click to show

JOSH & SILAS



If this happens, Silas's confessional board will become appointment viewing (if it isn't already).

#2

SPOILER: Click to show

ABBY & BINIAM




These are our two young lions that have come out of the gate roaring, establishing complete hammerlocks on their tribes after just one round of play. As someone who appreciates good gameplay, I'd be interested in seeing how these two powerful but similarly-subtle players play chess against each other.

#1

SPOILER: Click to show

JENNY & SAM





This has the potential to be a season-defining rivalry. My gut tells me it would end in Sam blindsiding Jenny, but if an explicit line is drawn between these two, it will easily overshadow anything else happening in this game. In an uncommon cast like this, where all almost all of our powerful, alpha players are women, we have an opportunity to witness an all-female "alpha showdown" storyline the likes of which we've rarely gotten to see on CBS. 

[charity]

Sadani:

In all honesty, I could see Sadani winning this challenge. Josh supposedly has "video editing" skills (yet he films vertical?) and we have some of the game's strongest characters on this tribe, which might translate through the video. Biniam and Sam are ride or dies, and they have total control over what happens on this tribe. Emily has done a great job re-inserting herself into this tribe, because early on Sam worried that Emily was playing too hard. Emily has completed her 180 and is thriving in this game. Biniam and Lee have also formed a really tight connection, to the point where Biniam is trying to work Lee into the fold. An alliance chat has even formed with Lee/Biniam/Sam. This leaves Josh in a precarious spot... the fact that he's sort of this blabbing puppy dog could save him, but I could also see a scenario where Biniam saves Lee to keep Josh. I am hoping this tribe doesn't lose, because everyone has so much to offer this game.

Varia

I said last round that Varia seemed to have a very cookie cutter dynamic, but I am seeing some shifts? This shift, however, isn't in Waylon and Minga (I will say though Waylon is doing ever so slightly better socially). I still feel like both Minga and Waylon need to do a lot more to fully integrate in with their tribe in order to stay safe. Austin found the idol (which Kollyn knows about), and they have decided to lie to Carley and CJ about it. This isn't because they don't trust the ladies, but it's because... you know... secrets are secrets. Carley and CJ suspect the boys of being shady, which has caused huge cracks to form within the alliance. I think these two ladies will have ultimate control over what happens on the tribe, so I am curious to see if they choose to make the move now or later.

Razu

Honestly.... so shocked at the way last round played out?!? Nobody "wanted" Robbie out, but were willing to settle in order not to lose someone more valuable to their personal games. I believe Shannon and Miles were in hot water last round, but Shannon was able to form something strong with Georgina, and Georgina is in a power position on Razu. Also Miles was able to form something with Abby, who seems to be less aggressive but is still holding a lot of power. I am very confused about where the dynamic may shift... I believe that Georgina and Abby will be swings going into next round. They will either pick to side Jenny, who seems to be pro-women at this point, or they will go with the guys and hope to be 4 strong. Jenny went up in points from having an idol, and I believe that she's smart enough not to tell anyone, but she could easily become the vote due to Georgina/Abby wanting to keep their guys so I wonder if she will play the idol in that scenario. Once Georgina realizes the idol is gone, her assumptions about where it went will play a huge part in which side she sides with. 

Cavaso

On Cavaso, I would say that Silas and Elyse still seem to be running circles with the social dynamic and I am viewing much of the game through their lense. No solid majorities have formed, but there seem to be a lot of webs that will eventually come into play. Everyone talks to pretty much everyone... It seems like Silas really likes Nicole and Jordan (with Elyse being his #1)... heck he's warming up to Jack! That doesn't leave many people left for Silas to vote out... Elyse seems to like Jordan and Jack. This dynamic will, I'm sure, change throughout the round, but I believe that if Silas and Elyse decide to both somewhat express their agendas, that Kami will leave by default. Kami has not put in the effort to participate in small talk that the other 5 have, and therefore bring nothing to the tribe. Jordan is a really fun quirky character who seems to be ranked somewhere in the middle, which is really where you wanna be. Nicole being voted out of her millionth game... will she pick it up? We will see.

[charity]

Waylon has turned a complete 180 in the last half hour?!?!? NO JOKE he is initiating alliances with Carley and CJ, throwing Austin and Kollyn under the bus out of the blue talking about how those guys wanna form an all guys alliance.. and the girls are actually biting and wanting to work with Waylon. THIS IS SO FUNNY WAYLON MOVING UP!

[devon]

Even though I might be biased, since I'm the President of the Austin Fan Club after all, I think there's legitimate criticisms to be made about how Waylon's approaching this.

Rough timeline:
- Kollyn invites Waylon to an all-guys alliance
- Waylon runs to CJ and spills everything, hinting that he wants to form a three with her and Carley.
- CJ reports everything back to Carley
- Waylon spills everything to Carley

During his calls with each of the girls, Waylon brings up that Minga obviously doesn't like him, but then he brings up using Minga as a 4th to get out one of the guys.

But, like, the guys want to work with you, Waylon! If I were Waylon I would let my bonds with CJ and Carley grow naturally, boot Minga, and then I'd be the swing vote between the guys and the girls. Waylon is not going to be in a good spot if he swaps with Minga or the remaining guy from the Austin-Kollyn duo. Especially since he was the one to break the news to Minga that she wouldn't be playing in the comp.

[ugheddie]

hot take and early prediction but i see the orange girls making this season their bitch if they’re able to maneuver all these connections, VERY EARLY PREDICTION BUT I FEEL IT . updates on my thoughts on each tribe coming at you tomorrow

[kilby]

I love that people are figuring out just how HARD VIDEO EDITING IS. As a video editor it is so refreshing seeing these people have total nightmares over actually making a well-done edited project
Anyways, thoughts I'm behind on.
Blue tribe:

This tribe has become pretty interesting just from the simple addition of an Actually There Waylon. The guy is awesome and just is out of his league here - I love that Austin is getting clocked. This is what we called in the round table - that Austin was super lucky. The minute theres more options, Carley/CJ have somewhat abandoned him. He's playing SLOPPY and is very likely to misuse the idol and get voted out.

C.J is REALLY playing very well. Seeing her confessional she never trusted Austin. She describes him as disingenuous. I think she has an EXCELLENT mind for the game, and the most shocking thing from her confessional is that she really likes Waylon. We've been too hard on Waylon. He's low key playing pretty well, and CJ listing him and Kollyn as people she wants to work with long term proves it. The WILD thing here is that CJ also shows distrust of Carley. She still wants to work with her but we have official confirmation of an assymetrical relationship builder in CJ! Carley is WAY more into CJ than CJ is into her, and same with austin tbh. CJ is playing amazing and is a fun strategic character.

Carley: is in the spot of slightly overplaying, looking a little too much like a threat but overall I like her spot. She isn't going to be in any ~danger~ here and has a lot of long term chances.

The real story here is how good Waylon has been low-key. Looks like an austin boot with a Minga tag-along is very possible.

---

Orange tribe:
Georgina Abby and Jenny are the STARS. I feel so bad for Georgina having to do all the editing: it's easily the hardest part of the challenge and it isn't even funny lol. Jenny found the idol and is rising in my estimations. Really proud of jenny for that. I don't think georgina should let shannon go, that is a huge mistake. I understand her emotions and definitely feel SO bad for her.


Miles and Shannon are being super boring lol. Shannon is just hitched onto Georginas leg, IDEK what miles is doing.

Green: ELYSE JORDAN SILAS IS OFFICIALLY REAL YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS YES YES YES I LOVE THEM ALL SO MUCH (Except Elyse is cancelled).

Silas is clearly playing the best on this tribe, at this point. Silas/Jack are a close cute bond that is just a really fun story. They are a survivor buddy cop movie. Silas also has jordan and Elyse, and one of the better bonds with Nicole. Long term I'm worried Elyse ditches him for Sam, but that isn't a fault on Silas. Extremely impressed with his play.

Kami is totally afk and useless, unfortunately.

Jordan/Jack are clashing and Jack referred to him as "unnverving" LOL. Exactly what we anticipated pre-season, but he's still my fav. He is such an alienating person and its delightful to see him doing well.

---

Purple:
Somehow the crackedest tribe is the only without an idol! Really love this tribe and everyone on it. Hope they don't lose because Lee likely just goes boringly, and he has a ton of potential.

Very impressed with Sam, Emily and Biniam as players. They seem like late-gamers to me. Sam/Biniam feels like the complex duo of the season, tbh.

Josh is amazing and I hope he stays around a very long time. He's such a weirdo and its refreshing to see someone this confident!

[kilby]

Sam and Elyse are both cancelled and could ruin the season

[devon]

I forgot to include one thing on my swap wish list:

SPOILER: Click to show

Sam and Elyse on different tribes for the love of god

[devon]

Josh is like Rob Cesternino but on crack

He must stay

[ugheddie]

i was gonna do a video but i figured reading would be easier plus i look like trash today so let's just roll w it ... i'll do a breakdown of my thoughts on every tribe in this moment but so much changes every day that things will most likely change soon once challenge results come out knowing how crazy these people have been already LOL

Tribe dynamic - This tribe is a weird twisted web in terms of connections. People have been making lots of conversation getting to know each other but not much strategic talk as of yet. I think the core three as of now is Elyse, Silas, and Jordan. This was the first official group chat made on Cavaso. Following that, you have Silas who has a good side relationship with Jack on one side and Elyse with a good side relationship involving Nicole on the other. Elyse and Nicole are planning to meet up this weekend in Nashville so early predicts that this will further bond them together. Silas will be flexible in his strategy though so we'll see how these connections shift over the next few days and we potentially see a new trio of Elyse/Silas/Nicole? If this tribe loses, Kami will most likely be the first boot just for not being around.

Rankings:

1. Elyse - idol queen duh
2. Silas - well-received and Elyse's #1, my fave connection on this tribe
3. Jordan - love that he's picked up his social game unlike games past, excited to see his character development
4. Nicole - luv just knows how to play these games like the back of her hand
5. Jack - love his character development so far, can't wait to see him in a swap
6.Kami-

Nicole takes Jack's previous spot at #4 just because Elyse says she's finding herself getting closer and closer to Nicole and Elyse is queen so what she says goes.




Tribe dynamic - GIRLS! GIRLS! GIRLS! I'm really rooting for this trio of girls. I think I see them being the antagonist to the whole Sam/Elyse connection we keep predicting which is what we desire in a storyline. I was really worried about Jenny at first since her first impression was not very great with the rest of her tribe mates. She really flipped things around though by having more one-on-one conversations with others so people could just further understand her as a person as a whole which I appreciate. She's got multiple connections now and she seems to be really keen on pulling in Miles and using him to her advantage. Georgina/Abby duo still seems to be strong but these 3 women working together is best for all their interests. Miles is picking it up as he's been received very positively by the rest of his tribe now that he's been around more. Shannon is slowly fading to the background and not contributing much to the narrative at the moment.

Rankings:

1. Georgina - i feel for her exhaustion but she still seemingly has the most social control on her tribe
2. Jenny - social idol queen, she just needs time for people to understand her soul
3. Abby - newbie queen, relatable and easily liked, can't wait for her character to develop more
4. Miles - extremely excited he's starting to pick up more social capital, definitely picking up his storyline
5. Shannon - shitty excuse but time zones are why i think i'm just not really keen on him rn

Updated post results:

1. Abby - queen never deserved to be #3
2. Jenny
3. Miles
4. Georgina
5. Shannon

Georgina will likely move back up after tribal though




Tribe dynamic - Ahhhhh, the best tribe EVER!!! With the amount of calls and information spread amongst this tribe I'm so shocked the atomic bomb has not landed on their beach yet! Sam/Biniam is the most dynamic duo in the game thus far as they are literally sharing EVERYTHING with each other. They have a group with Lee as they were the two to clue him in that he was on the outs, they have Emily in the fact that Emily also started to pick up on Josh being extra, and then they both have solid one-on-one connections with Josh as they just let Josh overplay his way to the grave. I think the reason Lee is in trouble here is because Sam/Biniam realize that out of the entire group, Lee will be the hardest to control down the line. I really hope these 5 all make it to the swap as I think every single storyline on this tribe are the most interesting thus far.

Rankings:
1. Biniam - easily my favorite player in the game, just extremely wise and charismatic
2. Sam - she's gonna hate me for this i'm waiting to hear her rage that she isn't #1 LOL
3. Emily - it's amazing that with Emily seemingly to be the least active, she is the most safe with Sam/Biniam
4. Lee - can't wait for you to pop off in a swap
5. Josh - great for episode content, don't want him to go anywhere even though he's being a bit messy




Tribe dynamic - This tribe seems to have the biggest shift in dynamic within the past 48 hours. You had a strong foursome of the active people on the tribe basically crumble as it was exposed amongst the tribe that someone had already claimed the idol. Carley has been spreading it like wildfire so that way she can find out any information that she is missing on a tribe that she was seemingly running. Carley/CJ have been getting closer and were already wary of the boys. The whole fuck up in all of this is that they think Kollyn has the idol when in reality Austin does. Waylon has been become a lot more active further cause a divide in the four as notes get compared on the two duos within the foursome. Excited for a Carley/CJ/Waylon trio though. Minga is still pretty much inactive and again not contributing much to the narrative.

Rankings:
1. CJ - social queen, liked by everyone, strategic, full package
2. Austin - idol gets him the #2 spot, although people are sketched i don't think he'd be the main target should they lose
3. Carley - i think carley needs a tribal to get her head back in the game in terms of not overplaying, i think time is getting to her but she's not doing bad by any means
4. Waylon - can't wait for his character development, i love the way that just his presence has shook up the dynamic entirely on this tribe
5. Kollyn - i love kollyn's passion but rn he is taking the heat for everything sketching being passed around his tribe, doesn't look too good for him
6. Minga - wish sis was around more

[ugheddie]

Connections I'm liking in the game:

Sam/Biniam

Jenny/Georgina/Abby

Every Razu girl/Miles

Silas/Jack

Player of the round:

Waylon

Swap connections I'm hoping for:

Elyse/Abby

Jenny/Carley

Austin/Miles

[andra]

Jenny and Carley will bond so hard on their astrology and other "cool and witchy" interests
Austin and Miles seem like total opposites but also super similar at the same time.

[devon]

Abby and Georgina conversation re: the vote

SPOILER: Click to show

Abby, 10:35 AM
Hey, so i was thinking about the double or nothing thing and want to talk to you about it, because if one of us could potentially give up our vote this round then going into a tribe swap or something at least one of us would have a chance if we were down in numbers... might be too risky now but i wanted to talk it through a little bit with you as an option



Georgina, 10:48 AM
Yeah I feel like just the thought of it right now scares the crap out of me because numbers are so low

But if we feel confident with numbers as well it's a good idea to do

Jenny would be the easier vote today because she's not gonna be around but I don't know if it's the better vote

I'm so torn


Abby, 10:51 AM
Yeah me too, id really need to feel solid with the other votes and its just so risky..


Georgina, 10:51 AM
I think the only way we could do double or nothing is voting jenny

Because I think Miles will do whatever Shannon does


Abby, 10:51 AM
Have you talked to miles at all?


Georgina, 10:52 AM
Nope I've just sent him a message now, have you?


Abby, 10:52 AM
No, but ill message him too and see if he says the same thing to both of us lol


Georgina, 10:54 AM
Hahaha good idea! Have you talked to Jenny? Is she gonna be around at all today? Like even to message? Because if not I think that's kind of shooting herself in the foot


Abby, 10:54 AM
She said she could message but not call and i just said i was open to doing whatever but thats it, it was like one message back and forth


Georgina, 10:55 AM
Damn I thought she'd put in a bit more effort than that

So has she not even said Shannon yet? I fully thought this was going to be the Jenny vs Shannon war


Abby, 10:55 AM
I just get nervous with shannon because he told me in his last game he blindsided someone in his alliance and i was like........... so you’re telling me you could potentially do that to me lol

He said that last night when we chatted

Huge red flag went up


Georgina, 10:55 AM
He SCARES me that's the thing

He also said he has a gut feeling Jenny doesn't have an idol


So what if that means he has it


Abby, 10:56 AM
Like it does seem like hes with us rn but i feel like at a swap or merge or something hed switch really quickly


Georgina, 10:56 AM
He told me the other day he'd spent like 48 hours looking for it


Abby, 10:56 AM
What!! Oh my gosh no way..

Well then either way i think right now he feels comfortable so he wouldnt play it but like...


Georgina, 10:56 AM
And if someone has put that much effort in surely it means something


Abby, 10:56 AM
Wow

Hes playing so hard

Thats why robbie wanted him out haha


Georgina, 10:57 AM
Well yeah we could get him out right now if he doesn't play it

Like you want people who play hard but not too hard because then they become scary


However it's tough because I do feel like he's with us right now


Abby, 10:57 AM
Yeah! Definitely

I think so too, its more going forward idk how much id trust him


Georgina, 10:58 AM
And I feel like Jenny is with us right now 😅


Abby, 10:58 AM
Even if he kept voting with us i feel like he could switch any time he thinks it would benefit him

Jenny i thiiiiiiink would be more loyal?? I just think that once you have her its harder for her to swap, at least in my mind it feels that way


Georgina, 10:59 AM
Yeah I actually fully agree with that

That's how I've been feeling too

Looks like Abby isn't going to let Shannon skate by again this round.

[kilby]

abby is a master

[devon]

End-of-Round 2 Thoughts

Cavaso

Pretty standard boot in Kami here. Jack's paranoia is bizarre, but at the same time kind of understandable - this is a very weird tribe when it comes to activity. If it was an active tribe in which people secretly didn't like him, people would be communicating with him roughly the same way they are right now.

I really do think that, at the very least, other people should be more aggressive with the Double or Nothing twist for this particular vote since it's so cut and dry. You don't know how many more clear-cut votes like these that you're going to get. Serious props to Nicole for being the main person on this tribe thinking through the twist.

Razu

RIP Shannon, my sweet prince. I think he just had a tough time with technical difficulties and a less-than-ideal tribe for him specifically.

Props to Miles for waking up and really starting to play the game. He's still the most likely boot if they lose again, but it's not a 100% certainty anymore like it was earlier. He's made each of the girls feel like he'd be a valuable but non-threatening ally for them.

This is still Queen Abby's tribe since both Georgina and Jenny consider her their #1's...I think even Miles would consider Abby his #1. I'm interested to see if Abby's influence will continue to spread to others at swap, or if her current dominance is more a function of this particular tribe being set up well for her to succeed.

Georgina now seems fine letting Shannon go, and although it's easy to criticize this move since it benefits others more than her, I don't think there's much else that she can do. Sometimes recognizing the ideal outcome isn't productive, if you don't have the resources to make it happen anyways. Georgina is legitimately very busy right now - and besides, Shannon definitely gives off wolf-y vibes, so Georgina is justified in being skeptical of him (even though it's actually true that Shannon values Georgina the most). Plus, I still think she's in good shape if they have to go to another Tribal.


Varia

Probably the most interesting tribe this round even though 2 other tribes are going to tribal! Waylon has taken Kollyn and Austin's place with Carley and CJ and is now very well-positioned on this tribe. I take back my prior criticism of Waylon-Carley-CJ since it looks like they'll still go for a Minga boot if they go to Tribal before swap.


Sadani

Interesting subplot with this tribe getting an idol clue for winning the challenge. This is the one tribe whose idol has not been found yet - no one had even cracked the Idol Board prior to the clue. Now the game is afoot, with Emily and Sam having both found the password. Emily leapfrogging Josh and Lee in Sam's hierarchy alone makes this is a big round for Emily. An idol find would probably make her the MVP of the round.