Episode 11: "We Both Knew This Was Gonna to Happen"

[devon]

The King of Ponderosa ascends (descends?) to his throne! 

Post your thoughts below!

[devon]

Pastebin of the Skype VL's discussion of the emerging 'Sam as a goat?' storyline:

pastebin.com/RHNBkJfS

[aubra]

Jenny released a confessional about not wanting Sam to target her other closest ally, Georgina and then Georgina released one talking about how she wants to target Jenny.... Oof. Hope Jenny realizes Georgina will throw her under the bus before it’s too late. And now she’s going to exile and Georgina is nervous that the votes will be split on Georgina and Jenny. Not good. I’m guessing the whole game will know Jenny has an idol by the end of the round. Seems like a lot of people already know and suspect she has two. She will probably need to play it here unless Sam works her magic and gets the target on someone else.

[devon]

Messy round so far, with a bunch of conversations between everyone, but very few confessionals explaining how people are really thinking.

How I roughly see it right now:
Side A = Elyse, Silas, Nicole, Emily (OG Cavaso + Emily)
Side B = Sam, Jack, Jenny, Waylon (Sam's zombies)

Some people on Side A think they have Waylon on their side, especially Emily, who seems to like him more than she likes most of the other people in the game. The wild card this round is the possibility that Emily might flip to Side B because of Waylon; she is Chaos Emily after all...

Silas is kind of double-dipping with people on Side B, but they're comparing notes on him. Side A is even a bit wary of Silas's gameplay.

This leaves Georgina and Carley.

Georgina should be on Side B on paper, but she wants Jenny out and is starting to make good bonds with people on Side A. Sam has had knives for Georgina for a while and it seemed like a foregone conclusion that she'd make a move on Georgina before Georgina would be able to do the same vice versa. But Georgina could flip to Side A as early as this round, which would make things more even and competitive between them. Notably, Georgina is probably the person that is the least concerned with the current "sides"; she's stated explicitly that her ideal group would have people from both sides.

Carley is in a great position. Both sides think they have her, but she's been open about how she feels like just a number for people - so whichever side she turns on may accept this as a justification. However, I want to see Carley be a bit more like Georgina here, and start making clear mid-to-endgame plans. She has an opening to reshape the game to her advantage, but if she just goes with the flow she'll be an easy outsider boot at 7 or 8.

[aubra]

Sounds like Jenny may play her idol which I don't hate for her. Even though it seems like she won't need to play it, the idol def puts more of a target on her back bc so many people know about it. And Georgina is very scared of votes being split on her and Jenny and her leaving since she's the one without the idol. So the idol being out of the game will probably make Georgina a little less scared of Jenny and give her less ammunition to use against her.

[aubra]

I keep looking for confessionals to see what the hell is going on but the only one posting them is Jenny who knows nothing bc she's on exile... Side note It's funny that the only person she is allowed to talk to is Emily.. So basically she can talk to no one bc Emily doesn't respond to people.

[devon]

Sam is saying in her production chat that it's a Sam vs Elyse game now.

My reaction to this game becoming a fight to the death between those two:

[devon]

Update: it is more of a clear-cut side vs side dynamic, with some murky relationships

Side A: Elyse, Nicole, Silas, Emily*, CARLEY
Side B: Sam, Jack, Waylon*, Jenny, GEORGINA

Carley isn't really in the middle, she's a spy for Side A...but Side B knows this.

Side B assumes they have Georgina, and Side A is assuming that they do not; so Georgina is effectively on Side B.

If neither idol is played correctly, we could see rocks...as long as neither Extra Vote is used, or if both are used.

In the event that both are used, Side A would win if they target Waylon because Waylon wouldn't be able to use his Extra Vote on the revote if he's involved in the tie. But afaik, Side A doesn't know that Waylon is the one with an Extra Vote, because it wasn't even public knowledge on Basino. A lot of people just assumed that Jack was the one who took it during the Kollyn vote.

This is gonna be the vote of the season, by far. But what's also nice is that I don't necessarily see the game progressing strictly on these lines after this vote - especially if Side A wins, because Elyse-Silas-Nicole is a well-known alliance.