Episode #4: "A Bad Dream"

[devon]

Our pre-swap ends with a bang! Josh leaves us in one of the craziest Tribal Councils ever, and Miles leaves us far too soon. 

Oh, and we're swapped.

Post your thoughts below!

[devon]

One underrated downside to Biniam's flip that we didn't even mention on roundtable was that no one was able to successfully gamble their vote. Had Lee gone, Biniam would've carried an Extra Vote with him to his new tribe, and Josh would've had one as well - with Josh as a loyal ally for OG Sadani.

Instead, the last-minuteness of the plan makes everyone play it safe and they end up with nothing. This is the main reason why I lean towards thinking this is a bad move - even for Biniam. Especially on this new Cavaso tribe, the lack of firepower could be Biniam and Sam's downfall here.

[andra]

SWAPPED

I love these swap dynamics. The more I think about it the more I think it couldn't have gone any better. I feel like there are so many different relationships present amongst the 3 new tribes. 

NuSadani - This tribe has a 3 person faction carried over from the previous tribes. They are the only tribe to carry a majority into the swap. The bright side is they have never been to tribal so we don't really know how tight they will be if other options are available. This tribe also has Elyse and Jordan, who carry advantages in an idol and an extra vote. This can absolutely help them if the 3 previous Varia appear to be sticking together. We ALSO have queen Emily who snagged that Sadani idol shortly before their epic tribal council. This tribe has so many possibilities and it's amazing.

NuVaria - This tribe has 2 previous Cavaso members in Jack and Nicole. Those two are possibly the most loosely linked players from their previous tribe so seeing them put on the same swap tribe is interesting. Will they work together or will they branch out? We also have Lee who survived last tribal by the skin of his teeth. His latest confessional is about him being woken up in the game so I'm excited to see how he moves forward from here. We also have Abby, alone from her previous tribe. Just a girl and her extra vote. She is so socially savvy that while it may be intimidating to join people with previous connections, she will do well here. Austin has an idol and likely an extra vote in Minga. She will follow any instructions he gives her and likely be many steps behind the true actions of the tribe.

NuCavaso - Another interesting dynamic here with Biniam/Sam - a seemingly unbreakable duo, Jenny/Georgina - allies from their previous tribe with an idol and extra vote between them, plus Silas and Kollyn both the sole member from their starting tribe. On paper it would look like Silas and Kollyn, especially Kollyn coming from Varia who hasn't lost any members, could be easy targets. It will be fun to see if they are able to save themselves and what impact that has on the rest of the tribe.

[devon]

Also, I forgot that I had also recorded the Sadani discussion immediately following Josh getting voted out.

The interesting thing that comes out of this is that Biniam got bailed out a bit: there was resentment and suspicion building up against him for pushing for Josh so hard in the last minute, but Josh's blowup after getting voted out seemed to validate the move for everyone.

[devon]

Quick updates on the swap tribes because I'm procrastinating heavy this afternoon:


NuCavaso

Kollyn is likely cooked here because he's the least capable player and he has one of the biggest targets from being on the dominant OG Varia tribe. 

This isn't a great tribe for Biniam to dominate socially like he did on OG Sadani, but he seems to still be doing fine. Like I said earlier, he seemed to be in hot water after pushing the Josh vote through the way he did, but Josh's subsequent blowup really validated the decision for Sam & Emily, so in a way they're almost thankful to Biniam. Lol. He should follow Sam's lead on this tribe, and I think he ultimately will.

Sam runs this tribe. If it isn't apparent from 1 1/4 games of history, it's unavoidably clear now: Sam is the queen of creating asymmetric relationships in her favor. Jenny, Georgina, and Silas are all VERY keen on working with Sam based on their talks with her, while she's calmly assessing her options. Sam will be making the next phase of this game, guaranteed, and she will almost certainly determine who leaves on this tribe.

Silas is distinguishing himself from Biniam and Kollyn as the best male player on this tribe. He's made good connections with everyone, and has a semi-asymmetric relationship in his favor with Biniam. That being said, Sam and Biniam are comparing notes on what he's told them and apparently he's told them both similar things, so Sam is getting very suspicious of him. If Sam feels like she could control Kollyn enough, we might get a tragic Silas boot here. (update: nevermind? Sam is saying she wants to keep Silas around now.)

Jenny & Georgina both love Sam and think that they've formed special relationships with her. Queen Sam is the new Queen Abby.


NuVaria

Abby runs this tribe. She's done the best job socially bonding with each person on this tribe, and she's already nearing a similar stranglehold to the one she had on OG Razu - almost every other person on this tribe considers Abby their #1.

Austin is doing better than I expected on this swap tribe. He's done a good job socially with each person and he's been the one to initiate strategic/alliance talk with Nicole, Abby, and Lee; and in my opinion, he's done so in a relatively-smooth way. In confessional he's expressed a willingness to cut Minga if need be, so I think everything is in place for Austin to survive if this tribe goes to tribal. And if he forms good enough strategic bonds with people, I could easily see him surviving a second tribal as well. Strong round so far by Austin.

Lee, predictably, is starting to step his game up and has formed good bonds with Abby and Austin, as well as leveraging his pre-game familiarity with Nicole (which apparently wasn't that strong to begin with; apparently he even voted her out of I Love Money...lol). To me, I think Lee now has about a 50/50 chance of lasting longer in this game than Biniam, which would have been inconceivable just 48 hours ago.

Nicole would have been in a position to run this tribe alongside Abby but she's been kind of inactive. Still, people vibed with her well and are wanting to include her in plans.

Socially, Jack is off to a similar start as he was on OG Cavaso. That being said, I do think the personalities on this tribe are a better fit for him so once this tribe loses a challenge, I expect Jack to be more at the forefront of his tribe's strategizing.

Minga has been inactive, but I'd be remiss if I didn't note that she posted "Austin " in the tribe chat once the swap tribes were finalized. Everyone noticed. I love her so much.


NuSadani

Waylon is going to play himself out of this game. He thinks he's being slick in how he's forming relationships with the non-OG Varia people but he's veering too hard in the direction of throwing Carley and CJ under the bus. This is a problem because Carley and CJ are two of the best social players in the game, so the others will likely choose them over Waylon.

Jordan is emerging as an under-the-radar contender to win this game. I thought his success in building bonds on OG Cavaso might have just been a fluke, but it seems to be continuing on this swap tribe. He has a very calm and measured way of communicating that seems to be putting people at ease. His vote-gamble at the Kami tribal is looking better and better by the day as well, since his Extra Vote could be the deciding factor on this tribe.

[devon]

Also I love how Sadani won the creative challenge where they had to make an epic tribal council, yet the only actual tribal council they attended ended up being even better.

[devon]

Pastebin of Skype VL thoughts after NuSadani lost and Emily emerged as a target:

pastebin.com/Ei3vntUt