Episode 15 & 16: "Men Not Being Nice to Me..." & "Finale"

[devon]

Type F in the chat for our fallen angel Jenny.

Post your thoughts on the round below!

[devon]

Last round was bizarre. There was a perfectly logical Elyse boot there for the taking, but the vote flipped on Jenny seemingly just to spite Waylon for leaking the plan to Carley. Oof. I get that there was discussion about not wanting the Elyse boot to be "Waylon's big move™️" (actual quote from the Georgina-Emily chat), but ( a ) I don't think it would have been seen that way; and ( b ) even if Waylon would have gotten credit, the importance of breaking up the Elyse-Carley-Nicole trio before F6 outweighs everything.

It sounds like Carley and Nicole (but mainly Carley) did a good job of convincing the others that they see Elyse as a threat and would be willing to get her out soon, so Emily and Georgina felt more comfortable waiting a round to target Elyse. But that will likely be a game-losing move by Emily and Georgina because Carley and Nicole are both planning on going to the end with Elyse even though they don't think they can beat her.

In her own way, Elyse is doing a lot of the good-social-game things that we praised Sam for all season. She has asymmetric relationships with Carley and Nicole, in that she's benefitting more from her relationships with them than vice versa. And she has a respect and rapport with those that aren't in her innermost circle, as was on display in her 1hour+ call with Waylon after tribal (in which Waylon was swearing on his life that he wouldn't betray Elyse again.)

[aubra]

Whew Final 6, Here We Go. First off Congrats on winning All Out 2 Elyse! Great job girl! Okay she didn't win yet, but I really don't see what or who is going to stop her at this point. It sure looked like she was going home last round, BC SHE SHOULD HAVE. Elyse, Carley, and Nicole are the only actual solid alliance I see still in the game and for some reason Georgina, Waylon, and Emily just allowed them into the final 6.

Georgina has just been so focused on Jenny that she hasn't been able to see what else is going on around her. She seems to believes that she is out here making big moves and will win the game unless the jury is bitter. All I've seen her do is jump on moves that the hex girls have made and give them more power when they have zero loyalty to her. She helped flush Jenny's idol and take Jenny out, when Jenny was loyal to her and claims she would have used the idol on Georgina. It's not like Georgina is Sam and has so many allies that she doesn't know what to do with them all... And we have not seen Jenny say a bad word about Georgina, she even defended her to Sam. So essentially Georgina's big move was to take out her ally bc she was scared Jenny would beat her. Guess what, Elyse will also beat you and has far more power than Jenny! I can kind of understand being worreid about an idol but when the idol was gone she still went after her, why?? I think she just got it in her head that Jenny needed to go early in the game and couldn't see past that. It'll be interesting to see how she plays now that Jenny is gone but I really don't see what moves Gerogina or anyone besides Elyse have to make at this point. Carley and Nicole could make a move and cut Elyse but then they risk being seen as the front runners and being taken out next if they do it too soon. Georgina says her next target is Emily, lol. Looks like a Hex girl final 3 is happening.

Watching Elyse's confessional I was ready to come here and say that the only weakness I think she has is thinking Nicole would take her to the end. I thought that was a weakness only bc I saw talk in the vl of how Nicole likes to turn it on at final 5/6 and might take out Elyse. But then I watched Nicole's confessional, and yeah she just wants to take Elyse to the end. So congrats Elyse. I also believe Elyse when she says Carley wants to take her to the end bc she likes her so much. We don't have a recent confessional from Carley so I guess it's possible that Carley will change her mind but she hasn't said anything to indicate that she will turn on Elyse at this point that I know of.

Emily seems to have gone inactive again and stopped spreading so much chaos. I love active chaos Emily but I guess she's literally on vacation so I don't know how much more we will see from her. Georgina wants to target her next so we could see her gone this round since the hex girls wouldnt have a reason to want to keep her. Emily said her next target is Waylon, ugh rip chaos queen. She seemed to know at the beginning of last round that Elyse needed to go but somewhere along the way she forgot?

Carley, I think she's playing a great game but will need to cut Elyse if she wants to win the 1k. Doesn't look like shell get her wish of someone else cutting Elyse for her so she will need to do it herself at the right time. Not sure if she cares enough to do it though. Low Key wouldn't be mad if she gets second so I can share my placement with a queen.

So as Elyse noted she took out all of my other faves. I'll forgive her if she wins.

[andra]

I basically share all of the same opinions as Aubra so won't type out what would be an almost identical write up from last round and what I think will happen going forward. I will say this:

1. Being afraid of a consensus huge boot being credited toward Waylon is silly considering half of the jury was still in the game and could absolutely refute that claim going forward. They all wanted Elyse out and could have made it happen as a joint effort. I don't understand how it could be considered Waylon's move.

2. Carley lost her chance at getting Elyse out without turning on her and lost a HUGELY RESPECTED voice in her favor in the jury while also keeping the biggest threat in the game. Based on the numbers she will have to turn on her to get her out going forward and I just don't think she has that in her as much as I have grown to root for Carley in the game.

3. Georgina wanting Emily out next is another cog in the wheel that rolls Elyse to the $1000.00. I don't see the logic in that move for Georgina, but I suppose that is because we can see everything and she just sees what people tell her. Georgina, Waylon, and Emily need to force rocks to have a chance to break up the unbreakable trio of Carley Elyse and Nicole if they want a chance to win - and Georgina wants to target EMILY.

Anyway, I'm hoping for rocks because they are fun.

[malkon]

Here are my thoughts on the players left, in order that I think they will win:

Elyse has played a stellar game from start to finish. I can't think of a single misstep she has made, just of those she is with. And she always recovers somehow stronger than ever. It's a mistake to let her keep going far.

Emily has been rather exciting this merge, being someone who is openly willing to make moves and be available, but she hasn't established a lot of trust so idk if it will catch up to her or not.

Carley has a great story. She's literally been a scrappy underdog who has risen from the ashes time and time again, but her amount of...moves/power are highly debatable. She hasn't generally done anything that can't be attributed to someone else.

Georgina has had the blinders on for several rounds. She's shut people out, she's alienated people who were with her all game, thrown away at least one advantage intentionally and hasn't taken many stabs to do anything. The one thing she does have going for her is that she always found herself on the right side of pretty much every vote, which few others can say they've done.

Waylon is a mess and a half. He has exactly two friends on jury, Sam and Jack. I really and truly doubt he will find anymore. No one trusts him, he's done nothing to establish any sort of trust with anyone else, and has basically just been there the last few rounds. At this point he is the last guy standing so if he somehow finds himself in the end, I suppose that's a story he can sell up, but his respect and win equity are debatable.

Nicole is...well...Nicole. She wants to go to the Elyse even though Elyse will probably beat her. Silas likes her...so ...idk she has one jury vote I guess?

[kilby]

props to elyse for winning a thousand bucks

props to emily for being one of the best org chars OF ALL TIME

[malkon]

I may not have given Waylon credit for his friendship with Emily.

That being said, he's not in it anymore so, that's the end of his winning chances.

[aubra]

The Hex girls got lucky with that one. I think rock could’ve been prevented. Georgina was talking in her confessional yesterday about wanting to vote out Emily or Elyse. Sounds like Carley sort of ghosted Georgina after Jenny left. If she would’ve kept Georgina feeling like she was with her I think Georgina would’ve voted Emily with them.

Going for Elyse was the right move even though it didn’t work out, but of course they should’ve done it last round. But they realize that now. Jenny really had no one last round so they could’ve waited to get her out after Elyse who had two strong allies who seem unwilling to turn on her.

Carley is disappointing me. She doesn’t seem to be putting in effort with anyone besides Elyse. Carley and Nicole talked down to waylon and called him dumb when he went to rocks, which wasn’t a good look and terrible jury management. I get you’re upset but they have to see that this was the right move for him and they could’ve put in more work to prevent it. Nicole I think had her first call all game with Waylon this round.

So basically Elyse is winning the game unless Georgina or Emily win the f4 immunity, and then they could possibly beat her. Emily prob has a better chance to win at FTC. I don’t think Georgina has a lot of fans on jury based on the way she played. Seems like Jenny def isn’t a fan. Emily was more of a known wild card where as Georgina had allies but was actively working against them, so I think more people will be bitter against her.

Nicole should flip at final 5 but I’m pretty sure she loses regardless at this point so does it really matter for her? Emily and Georgina would probably just get the credit for flipping Nicole. I guess it is possible she flips but it doesn’t seem like she cares enough to. As for Carley the only recent confessional she did was one with Elyse on call with her so it’s hard to say where she stands. But all signs point to Carley willingly going to the end with Elyse even though she knows she won’t win. So I don’t see any flips happening but we’ll see.

[malkon]

Aubra basically took all of the words out of my mouth.

Elyse's win equity is ridiculous at this point because she literally has two people who will likely never betray her. Barring a f4 immunity win by Georgina or Emily, I think she has this in the bag.

That being said Elyse has survived really really sticky situations where people were coming for her head. So there is something that would be satisfying about her winning because literally everyone else failed to take her out at the times she was vulnerable. She also found the first idol and was the first person to successfully play it. She survived half of her allies dying, Silas, Jordan...sure throw "Austin" in there as well, they were working together at some point I guess.

She also has an immunity win under her belt, but it was a touchy subjects immunity so it's sort of not as higher weighted as other immunity challenges.

All-in-all, I won't be upset with an Elyse win as she's a very worthy recipient of the title, but these last couple of rounds are going to be hella boring if Nicole doesn't flip. I seriously seriously doubt Carley will.

[devon]

Endgame thoughts (as the FIC is going on):


Nicole - I empathize with her personal situation; like, it would have been a totally valid reason to quit the game. So in a sense, everything we're getting from Nicole is above and beyond what we should be getting. But still, I do think this game has exposed some flaws in her game philosophy. At the Final 5 tribal she talked about how her style of play has won her games before, which is obviously a fair reason to play such a style...but sometimes the specific situation you're in calls for you to shift away from your "style". And here, I think all the signs were there for Nicole that she needed to play more fluidly and offensively, but she never did.


Georgina - A Georgina win is possible, but it would be very weird. Georgina's defining move in this game was turning her back on Jenny, which was universally panned by the VL. She maneuvered poorly after the Sam vote - the Jack and Jenny boots were bad for her and great for Elyse's side.

That being said, if Nicole and Carley are villains for not wanting to win, Georgina is one of our clear heroes based on her performance at the Final 5 tribal. I'm a sucker for people who are hyper-invested in the game. And even turning on Jenny, while not a great move, was rooted in a desire to win and not be in someone else's shadow. That stands out in this endgame.


Carley - Preseason, I felt like Carley was one of the best players on the cast, and I haven't wavered on that. So many bad things have happened to her all game, yet not only is she still in the game, but there's been kind of an air of inevitability about it all. To me, that's the mark of a great player. And in a sense I don't blame for just being loyal to the only group that's actually had her back this game.

Buuuuuuuuuut, we have to talk about this endgame. I think each round-by-round decision to save Elyse has had some merit...but considered collectively, her endgame has just been a disaster. Based on what we're getting in confessionals from her and in her conversations, she seems to think she can beat Elyse, which might be the worst endgame read I've seen in my entire life. Almost everyone has shouted at her that Elyse is winning if she gets to the end, and on top of that, she's pissed off each of those people on the way out by not helping them vote out Elyse. Yes, juries can be fickle, but this sequence of events literally cannot lead to anything else other than an Elyse win if she gets to the end.


Elyse - If you're Elyse, you stand a lot to benefit from basically wife-ing up Carley because you beat Carley at the end. You should gleefully become besties with her and make commitments to her outside this game. But conversely, if you're Carley, you should be VERY hesitant to do so because you're only making it harder to cut someone that you're losing to. So ultimately, in a game of deception and subtle social one-upping, Elyse and Carley's BFF relationship represents Elyse annihilating Carley. It's *the* defining asymmetric relationship of the game, and it's likely going to make Elyse $1000 richer.

Furthermore, what gives Elyse credibility as a good player, rather than someone who just fell into good relationships, is the way in which she cut one of her closest personal relationships in Sam without hesitation or remorse. Elyse is here to win and is making moves - but more importantly, relationships - that advance her game. With the jury system, Survivor is essentially a meta-popularity contest (meta in the sense that everyone in the game knows that it's a popularity contest and can vote out popular "threats"), and Elyse is our prom queen.

[devon]

Jan 27, 2020 22:21:52 GMT -5 devon said:

The winner of All Out 2: Double or Nothing:

SPOILER: Click to show

whoa

[devon]

[aubra]

Finale Thoughts:

Carley played an amazing game, but I am very worried for her going into ftc. This is mainly bc she did one thing the jury, and others, don't seem to respect and that is keep Elyse. Of course, I can relate to that. The situations are different but having everyone so certain you made a huge mistake, whether or not you know it was the right decision for yourself and got you to where you are, is a huge burden to overcome. FTC really isn't that long, if given five minutes for intros again having to use a big chunk of that to defend one decision doesn't leave a lot of time to explain the rest of your game. Also, it's very hard to change people's minds in a short period of time when they have been talking to each other and thinking about how it was a bad decision for days. So even though she seems to recognize her game and be able to talk about it, it will still be hard to get it all out when so much focus will be put on one question. It will def help if everyone shows up and is present the whole time so she doesn’t have to keep repeated herself. You also kind of have to rely on people asking the right questions as well since it’s hard to fit your entire game into an intro. Let's also hope a chunk of the jury doesn't get themselves kicked off right before tribal when she spent all day firing herself up and practicing, only to throw her off but I digress.



Back to Carley, I was pleasantly surprised watching the jury round table. It sure seems like the jury has an actual open mind and does recognize her game. They still all seem to agree that Carley should have cut Elyse, so let me touch on that for a minute. When Carley was on the swap tribe with Jenny, Sam etc. she was left out of a vote, she was with them but clearly at the bottom. Sam already had some many allies that she didn’t really need Carley even though she liked her. I think it was the absolute right choice to jump on Elyse's side at merge. She just fit in better over there and seemed to be a more needed part of the alliance, which I stated at the time. Silas leaving really gave her the opportunity to slide right in as Elyse's number one and ride it out till the end. Elyse was loyal to her and was a shield to her. No one looked at knocking out Carley bc they were too busy trying to knock out Elyse. Carley made sure her side got the numbers back. When Elyse was supposed to leave at 7 Carley helped swing the vote on to Jenny. I said at the time that that was a terrible move for everyone not named Nicole, or Carley. Those three getting to final six together was key bc they weren’t going to turn on each other and the other side had to rely on a rock draw to try and take them out. Everyone could say they would've taken Carley to the end if she took out Elyse but who knows. They could’ve seen her as the next big threat if she helped take down her closest ally. Carley flipping on Elyse at 5 or 7 would've given other people such as Georgina and Emily so much power, which is why they wanted her to do it. Carley knew Elyse was loyal and Nicole was also loyal by default. Everyone else left a strong three in the game way too long and she benefited from that and then they got mad that she didn’t want to turn on her allies like they did to theirs. The only time imo that it would’ve been really smart to take out was Elyse was at final 4. She would have had to win the final immunity to do that which is easier said than done. Another questions I have is Why was it so important to take out Elyse and not sit next to her? The jury kept saying things like Elyse didn't talk to us, we weren’t sure why she was a threat, she didn't do much at merge. I’m not saying any of that is true but if that's how they feel then why couldn’t Carley sit next to her? Is it just bc everyone kept repeating that Elyse was the biggest threat so it became reality? If Emily and Georgina and even Waylon succeeded in taking out Elyse bc Carley flipped over to them and didn’t go to rocks were we supposed to believe that Carley would have beaten all of those people? I think it is reasonable to assume that at least Emily wouldve been a huge threat at tribal. That girl made moves. Maybe Carley could’ve beaten Georgina but was she supposed to trust Georgina to get her to the end when she saw her turn on all of her allies? We saw what happened to other people (Georgina) when they voted off their allies early bc they didn't think they’d beat them in the end, they never got to the end. Bc you do need allies and people you can trust to make it. But putting the decision to never turn on Elyse aside it seems like the jury does recognize Carley's game and think she did certain things better than Elyse. They seem very open to hearing what she has to say which is refreshing. I'd say there are still a couple people that seem dead set on voting Elyse but there are far less of those people than I expected. Carley seems to have a fighting chance and I think she at least has a chance to pull out a win based on hearing her talk about her game. I'm excited for her and excited to see which way the jury decides to go.



Queen Elyse played a dominant game from start to finish. She lost a few close allies along the way but was always able to find new allies and forge bonds that got her to the end. Her name was on everyone's lips from merge on, but no one was able to knock her out. The main problem the jury seems to have with her is that they say she didn’t try that hard socially with them and just stuck to her crew. Maybe this was bc she knew was being targeted and who she knew she needed to protect her? It’ll be interesting to hear what she has to say. But what she accomplished was impressive. She was able to surround herself with people that went to rocks for her even when the odds were against them and even when they knew she was going to be very hard to beat in the end. She was in a minority alliance after the start of merge but was able to swing the numbers back in her favor and dominate the rest of the merge. The struggle for her is going to be getting credit for how the merge played out. During the roundtable some of the jury seemed to not think Elyse did that much during merge which is confusing since they all are perpetuating that she was the number one jury threat who needed to be taken out. She will need to point to moves she made and make the jury give her credit for them in order to secure her win. She is going to need to show passion and convince them that she wants this. The girls spent 9 hours posting photos I think it's safe to say she wants it, but it seems like some of them question that and are calling her monotone. I thought this was going to be an easy win for her but now I question that given what the jury had to say and given the passion Carley has been showing. If Carley comes out swinging against Elyse it could spell trouble for her. I have doubts Carley will though given the fact that they formed such a strong friendship. But Carley does have points to make against Elyse which she has stated in her confessional. Now it’s a question if shell actually state those in front of Elyse. If she didn’t try to knock Elyse out at f4 is she really going to attack her now? Probably not. But I still think Elyse probably wins? I could be wrong, but it seems like she has a few set in stone votes: Waylon, Austin, Silas. Lol so all the men pretty much, maybe even Jack. Whereas Carley has some defenders, Emily, Georgina, Jenny but I don't think any of them were set in stone, they all still think she should’ve taken out Elyse. I worry Elyse will assume she already has the game won and not put in as much work to secure the win. If this happens I can easily see an upset happening. I do think Elyse really wants it though so she just needs to convince the jury that she wants it and why she deserves it.



There's not much to say about Nicole. They don't respect her game at all. Silas is the only one to defend her, but he still wouldn't vote for her. They were really turned off by her comments about not needing $1000. I mean she plays these games all of the time and most have no money prize so Idk why it matters if she needs to the money? Does she never try to win? Why do people like that play? She has personal issues going on so maybe that had something to do with her game.



Prediction:

Elyse: Jack, Silas, Austin, Sam

Carley: Jenny, Emily, Georgina

[malkon]

Who does Waylon vote for?

[devon]

Mar 11, 2020 15:11:24 GMT -5 malkon said:

Who does Waylon vote for?

He's voting Elyse; he doesn't think much of Carley's game.

[devon]

[devon]

Top Moments of All Out: Double of Nothing:

- Erica's meet me video
- Minga saying she wanted Kollyn out during the initial Varia tribe call
- Elyse finding an idol and actually showing emotion
- The Josh blindside
- Almost everything about Austin in the pre-swap
- Emily's confessional where she ranted about men instead of talking about the game
- Jordan and Elyse telling each other about their advantages before tribal; them getting blindsided at the ensuing tribal
- Elyse and Emily telling each other about their idols; ensuing double idol play
- Minga going back and forth between laughing and moaning during the blindfolded endurance challenge
- Sam finding out that her closest ally, Biniam, lied to her about not knowing Spencer Flohr; UNLEASHING on him
- Jack's angry confessional after the Abby vote
- How Kollyn was an obvious first boot on every tribe he was on, yet somehow made it to the 2nd swap
- Austin's open frustration during the Lee tribal
- Austin's confessional where he said that Georgina was his #1 in the game before he had even met her, and despite being on different tribes for each of the first three phases of the game
- Austin's conversation with Sam where Sam calls him out and Austin gets flustered
- Waylon's date with TSL
- My date with Emily
- The Silas blindside
- Emily's conversations with Carley and then with Georgina, aka #SamExposedParty; ensuing Sam blindside
- Jack's impersonation of Waylon
- Elyse's dancing lip sync confessional after surviving the Final 7 tribal
- RAWKS
- Emily's roast of the majority alliance after the RAWKS tribal
- Georgina's emotion and passion at Final 5 and 4
- Jury roundtable actually being good, with everyone being fairly objective (good job!)

What a fun ride.

[devon]