Episode #1: "If You're Not Talking, You Need To Be Dying"

[ricky]

Feel free to discuss the game thus far; will be posting footage via montage threads. 

[devon]

24:00 on the Varia montage is the best moment in the history of tribe calls and no one can convince me otherwise.

Watching the call live, Carley wasn't shy about her Survivor knowledge/fandom, whereas everyone else was either not as much of a fan or at least more coy about it. I thought she might get clocked as a Survivor know-it-all, overeager type but everyone in their confessionals seems to have a positive opinion of her so I think she's set.

Also, I'm not sure if this came through in the montage, but this tribe call was horribly awkward - even by tribe call standards - until Austin showed up. The energy of that call palpably increased after he came on. I think what helps Austin is that he's almost oblivious to when things are awkward, so he's able to persist and break through any awkwardness. He's good socially, but in a way that others will still feel superior to him - which is a great thing in Survivor!

[ricky]

Night one in any game, especially with players who have never done this before, tend to fall on the awkward side of things with moments of glory here and there. I knew Carley was bound to be the nucleus of this tribe, and with that I think she has officially secured her spot into a swap and the contender of this tribe.

Carley and CJ had immediately hit it off based on their personality and turned out to have layer after layer of things in common. Though CJ didn’t make it through the entire call; she left an extremely good impression on everyone, even Minga who didn’t entirely love her, didn’t have much to say they was bad.

The shock of the night is everyone thought Austin and Minga were going to link up; and it was quite the opposite. The night started off with Waylon making a small appearance, which resulted in Minga trying to make him an immediate target. Throughout the night Minga became the out going negativity of the group. I don’t think this was on purpose, and I do believe her tribe mates were misunderstanding her humor. The problem is that she stood out like a sore thumb. Between showing her disdain for Austin and her lack of awareness to distinguish the names between Kollyn and Waylon, she has for sure set herself up to be an easy target.

By the end of the night Austin and Carley especially were bonding, while I found Kollyn to be in the right place, at the right time. I believe this alliance will go strong, but I do find them pulling in CJ with both Austin and Carley relating to her much more. Carley and Cj keep discovering more things in common and I imagine once their trips are done (or if they meet in person), we will get some girl power.

Rankings of night one.

1. Carley
2. Austin
3. Cj
4. Kollyn
5. Minga
6. Waylon

My top three represents the personalities that stood out and are in a good spot while I place Kollyn ahead of Minga only because he in my opinion has found safety. If we were going by characters, Minga would take the fourth spot over Kollyn,

Waylon has a ton of work ahead of him!

[aubra]

Really loving Carley, CJ and Austin. I wasn’t a fan of Austin’s video and I think I ranked him last but he quickly won me over. I think these three will make it far while I can easily see the other three go premerge. Minga May have been better served to leave the call early with or without saying goodbye bc she really rubbed everyone the wrong way. She may want to stop targeting Waylon and start trying to work with him. I would bet on her being the first boot as long as Waylon puts in an ounce of effort.

[cmack311]

First impressions for the Varia tribe:

-Carley: Super likable, I think she meshed well with practically everyone...she knows exactly what she's doing and has a great read on this group it seems. I think she is set up perfectly on this tribe...she made sure she was one of the last ones on the call after being there when it began...SMART.

-CJ: I think she got off to a good start. Sucks she had to leave earlier than most of the tribe, but I think she should be fine. It'll be interesting to see if her and Carley actually meet-up in Orlando on Saturday.

-Minga: Phew! She seems very sociable but my goodness does she have some awkward things right away. First off, the iCarly reference was cringe, then telling them to vote out Kollyn who was ON THE CALL, the Ken doll stuff, like major yikes! She seemed to love game talking about voting someone off right away which is really aggressive especially after 20 minutes of knowing them. I think she shot herself in the foot a few times in a span of a half hour.

-Kollyn: He's a lot more likable than I think we all realized. He definitely has that Oklahoma charm to him, I think being there the entire time like Carley will do him a lot of good. Definitely think he has a far better chance than we gave him in the pre-game roundtable.

-Austin: Oh Austin joining in like halfway through the call was so awkward, especially him basically asking them "oh hey, did you guys talk strategy before I joined?"...like what??? Who even asks that? I don't think he helped his game much to start, but being on the call at the end is sometimes a good thing. Also fun that he wants to start drama and throw Minga under the bus right away to Waylon.

-Waylon: Well for what it's worth, I really didn't change my opinion on him based on the pre-game analysis. Him basically ditching the call after a few minutes before 2 of his other tribemates ever showed up was hilarious. Also as i'm typing this, he apparently is finally messaging people after nearly 20 hours since the call, so that's lovely. He needs to have a whole lot of luck to avoid being the first boot here.

RANKINGS BASED ON NIGHT 1
1) Carley
2) Kollyn
3) CJ
4) Austin
5) Minga
6) Waylon

[fabi]

My first impression on the Varia tribe

Austin: He arrived a bit late but I do not think that mattered much. My opionion of Austin already has changed just from the montage - in a positive way. He seemed kinda awkward but also kinda funny. I liked that he had the balls to literally form an alliance on day 1 with Kollyn and Carley, once Minga was gone. I think he will be good on this tribe and will not be a pre-swap boot.

Carley: Honestly I think Carley had a REALLY strong and good first call. She was there the whole time, got to meet everyone, and ven though she has a lot of ORG experience, she was not crying for attention in this call. She was more in the backgroung, listened to people, talked when she needed to and I think she is in a great position already. She is also very smart by keeping communication open with everybody because in a game like this, COMMUNICATION IS KEY! I was super impressed with Carley and I think she is set up very good in this tribe.

CJ: CJ was not around that much at the call but the time she was there I really liked her! She seems super nice and down to earth but also funny! It was a shame that she did not get to meet Austin but I think OG3 will choose her as their 4th member, which I think is a good choice because CJ also did not like Minga so they have something in common.

Kollyn: I was soo pleasantly surprised by Kollyn. He seems like a nice, chill dude and he was there the whole time, so he got into the OG3 alliance. He may not be the most outspoken and loudest person but I really enjoy him so far and I could see him being a valuable player and ally, especially to OG 3.

Minga: Again another surprise - but kinda negative this time. Coming into this Minga was in my Top 3 for this tribe but after wtaching how she interacted with her tribe, she really went down in my eastimations. She came across really UNLIKEABLE, almost rude, especially when she said Kollyn should be first boot, even though I know she meant Waylon, I think it is not THAT hard to remember 5 names, also you can also see on skype what their name is, so not knowing names I find that kinda disrespectful. Overall she just made a really bad first impression not only on me but seems also on her tribe.

Waylon: Well... I mean just getting off call without saying anything is kinda harsh and not good but at least he did not make a bad impression like Minga. I think being on first night calls is important for conenctions but you can come back from nit being there. Last season I think none of the people that were predicted to be first boot by their tribe, actually went home, so I think Waylon can for sure come back from this if he starts talking.


Overall, really interesting tribe dynamic so far. We obviously have our first alliance OG3, consisting of Carley, Austin and Kollyn and I think they will get CJ as their 4th, making it a majority. As for the first boot: I think it is better to not make an impression at all than a bad one and with that being said I think Mingas chances of being the first boot are the biggest so far. Obviously a lot can happen in the next days but i would say either Minga or Waylon will be the first boot

RANKING BASED ON NIGHT 1
1) Carley (=)
2) Kollyn (+3)
3) CJ (=)
4) Austin (+2)
5) Waylon (-1)
6) Minga (-4)

[malkon]

My thoughts:

Yeah this went about how I expected in my thoughts. Minga has a strong personality and you either LOVE or HATE her and clearly people are teetering towards not liking her. Carley at least seemed open to not alienating her. I'm interested to see how that develops.

Carley was the social queen bee that players gravitated towards...as I predicted.

Austin was a little calmer than I made him out to be, but still he immediately jumped on the Minga thing as soon as she was gone and went out of his way to make his alliances. He's not quite the trainwreck I expected him to be, but I still really like him. His hot sauce confessional was gold. I liked him in my pre thoughts but thought he'd be a bit more of a trainwreck. There's still a lot of game left to play, I'm still waiting until the train wrecks, but will be delighted if I'm wrong.

Waylon...was probably the biggest surprise to me out of the lot. I didn't expect him to just ghost people for a shaky reason. He started off as the smarmy villain I predicted, but then just vanished. I...don't know how he's going to do. He's an easy person to pick off if they give Minga what she wants, but he's not...out of the loop if he can get back. I still get villain from him, but its not going a traditional villain route if I'm right.

CJ was everything I hoped for and more. She's perfect. Literal perfection. This is the type of girl you pick up, you work with, and you love. I pretty much called her being personable and amazing. She's a LITTLE on the outs from not meeting Austin, but they all seem to want to pick her up. CJ is amazing.

Kollyn was...a little surprising. He was able to form social bonds, though part of it was lucky that Minga was polarizing and Waylon vanished. If they hadn't I don't know how Kollyn would have done. He sort of lucked into his alliance by virtue of not being gone and not being Minga. But he's still not THAT interesting to me, and still has goat written on him, so I'm still standing by my prediction until he proves me wrong. He's just...a little less robotic than I thought he was in his meet me video.

1. Carley
2. CJ
3. Austin
4. Kollyn
5. Minga
6. Waylon

[aubra]

Night/day 1 Ranking:
1. Carley - hands down the star of the tribe. Everyone loves her. She’s a social queen.
2. Austin - showed up late to the night one call but took charge and made the first alliance, which included the #1 on the tribe. The downside is he could have handled Minga better.
3. Kollyn - wasn’t that impressed with him on the night 1 call but he did get himself into an alliance. He rose for me during his alliance call. He seems to be linked up with the right people.
4. CJ - will def raise and would be higher if she wasn’t on vacation. Unfortunately she missed out on being in the first alliance.... So far. But the alliance seems to like her and is talking about adding her. Carley and her seemed to vibe really well.
5. Waylon - has potential, but the question is if he’ll do anything with it. I think if he’s active he can get himself in with the og three and at least last longer than Minga.
6. Minga - what’s worse than leaving the night one call after ten minutes without saying goodbye?? Probably saying someone on call should be the night one boot and calling someone else a Ken doll all while chewing a meal on camera. She’s in trouble.

[taystl]

1. Austin - at the top because hes by far impressed me the most. hes a complete newbie to all this and hes sending paragraphs on paragraphs to everyone, giving them all tons of talking points. he was the first to submit confessionals and hes really pushing for the trib to call again together. I . love. him.
2. Carley - Carley no surprise falls second here. She knows what she's doing at it shows.
3. CJ - CJ is so relatable. shes so good at getting people to talk and open up to her and its impressive.
4. Kollyn - Kollyns social game lacks over the top three which is why I have him at 4. but hes gotten himself in a decent position.
5. Minga - Minga is above Waylon because shes so unfiltered its hilarious, but man I could never play with her lmao.
6. Waylon - does he even exist?? lmao.

[andra]

1. Carley - Definitely tiers above anyone else in her tribe as far as game sense, personality, and experience - and it truly shows.
2. Austin - I am not as high on him as most people are tbh. Sure, he is forming alliances and such but I feel like he is monotone and awkward about it. I could absolutely see Carley and CJ flipping away from him in any swap situation. I think people are with him because the options are so limited on this tribe.
3. Kollyn - Same as Austin - he will be starting from scratch when CJ or Carley have other options. He has done homework, though, so it will be interesting to see if he can find some footing.
4. CJ - She will quickly move up to #2 in the next couple of days and she and Carley will be a tight pair.
5. Waylon - He's still in the clouds. His positivity is refreshing but he is not long for this game.
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6. Minga - So many wtf moments. It's almost like she saw her tribe, felt like an outsider based on first impressions, and decided within herself that she wasn't going to try to connect with anyone. She made many outlandish comments (iCarly, Ken Doll, "I'm very good at taking clothes off and putting them on"), was drunk (did she start the call drunk or not because she was getting out of her car at the beginning?), was shoving food down her throat knuckles deep in her mouth commenting on how salty her fingers tasted... idk she is either very very lacking in self awareness or this was all on purpose for whatever reason - my guess is the latter. First boot of this tribe.

[kilby]

VERY impressed with Carley. She has played this very well and managed to be pbasically lock-step with everyone. Austin discounting people immediately seems to be an immediate weakness for the long term game.

CJ impresses by not being around much but sliding into a majority, safe position

[kilby]

I think JORDAN is my new favourite on this cast. The guy is so different? He is fun, interesting, smart and playing the game pretty hard it seems - he also is just suuuuuuuuuuuuper weird. Why is he doing a confessional in a bouncy castle at a kids birthday party? That is a supervillain move. His video sounds like there are gunshots popping off in the background! But his relationships on the tribe seem genuine, and he is here to play and play hard. Exceptional casting! I love him so much.

Who even is like..."i have a confessional to film for a game...better pull out my phone in this abandoned bouncy castle?" He's the level of quirky that is EXTREMELY endearing. Hope he does well.

[kilby]

SAM LEAVE EMILY ALONE

[aubra]

Feb 1, 2020 21:38:27 GMT -5 kilby said:

I think Jordan is my new favourite on this cast. The guy is so different? He is fun, interesting, smart and playing the game pretty hard it seems - he also is just suuuuuuuuuuuuper weird. Why is he doing a confessional in a bouncy castle at a kids birthday party? That is a supervillain move. His video sounds like there are gunshots popping off in the background! But his relationships on the tribe seem genuine, and he is here to play and play hard. Exceptional casting! I love him so much.

Who even is like..."i have a confessional to film for a game...better pull out my phone in this abandoned bouncy castle?" He's the level of quirky that is EXTREMELY endearing. Hope he does well.

clearly he likes to do things in odd places he does have an office in an airport.

[devon]

Carley and Shannon are both looking at "Number that is NOT related to the password for the idol board" to try to find the password for the idol board. They're both very schemey players and it's as if they're subconsciously projecting their own scheminess onto others - in this case production/me. It's entertaining.

[devon]

VL thots

SPOILER: Click to show

Christen, 1:13 PM
can I have a brief rundown of the other tribes too? I've been busy


Cmack311, 1:13 PM
Part 3 is live


Bailey, 1:14 PM
Blue - Sucks
Green - Trainwreck
Yellow - Likable
Purple - Sam


each tribe described in one word


Kilby, 1:15 PM

Blue - Sucks
Green - Trainwreck
Yellow - Likable
Purple - Sam
Bailey, Today at 1:14 PM
Purple also rocks

Hot take Sam is bottom half on that tribe interest wise

That tribe is 🔥


Bailey, 1:15 PM
Yeah purple is amazing, it just seems like the Sam tribe in terms of game wise,


Kilby, 1:15 PM
Purple > orange


Kilby, 1:16 PM
Green > purple > yellow > production > blue


Bluering


Malkon, 1:16 PM
I feel like VL is higher than yellow


Charity, 1:17 PM

can I have a brief rundown of the other tribes too? I've been busy
Christen Williams, Today at 1:13 PM
Purple has Josh overplaying, Sam dominating, Lee/Erica in hot water

Orange everyone is still getting to know each other, it seems like Georgina is killing it. I could see Miles being on the outs. The girls on orange are so well rounded.

Green: Silas seems to be playing the best game, he feels close to Elyse. The others are just having general chit chat, no clear lines drawn yet except through Silas’s eyes (I think he hates Jack)


Kilby, 1:17 PM
Is Sam really dominating


Christen, 1:17 PM
blues clues>blue tribe


Charity, 1:17 PM

Is Sam really dominating
Kilby, Today at 1:17 PM
Everyone loves her and wants to align with her

So in that sense yes


Cmack311, 1:17 PM


Bailey, Today at 1:16 PM
Uh oh


Charity, 1:17 PM
Not a “let me call the shots” sense


Devon, 1:18 PM
lukewarm take: Blue is actually fine entertainment-wise compared to standard org tribes, it's just that the other three tribes are all high-quality


eddie, 1:18 PM
Sam just seems the best received by everyone rn


Yeah I think just the other 3 tribes are so good they're just the bad tribe by default


Devon, 1:19 PM
from an episode standpoint, Austin's antics on that tribe alone would give blue a lot of airtime
Austin-Minga is fun, and Austin is aggressively running scenarios/plans with his alliance. Carley preferring CJ over her alliance with Austin-Kollyn is an interesting subplot


Cmack311, 1:20 PM
I still can't get over Josh not knowing how to pronounce his tribe's name

also Austin is playing extremely well I think

[kilby]

Purple Tribe: I really like this tribe! Everyone is super fun, and mostly really good interesting players.

Everyone thinking Erica is some crazy veteran player who is hiding it is HILARIOUS. Especially considering as @rorymoore pointed out if you're on a tribe with 6 people, and you're close to 3 of them, and you think the person not talking is a secret super genius puppet master: who is left for her to have influence over? The argument is self defeating, and poorly reasoned! Erica isn't talking because she doesn't know what she's doing. If instead she was super social and strategic, you might be able to consider that possibility. It is insane.

Sam: She said she was a bomb ass writer then used the term "Beckon call" so she is cancelled. I actually really like Sam, but I do think she is getting a liiiiiiiiiiiiiiittle overrated here at this point of the game. She's well connected, and in a good spot. I don't think she's insane puppet master over this tribe like some others on other tribes are currently (But that is okay. She has room to grow). Her connection with Biniam is killer, and really sets her up to be in a good spot moving forward.

Speaking of which: Biniam is awesome. Really impressed by his play and social ability. Didn't see him coming at all, and he really has impressed me quite a ton.

Josh: JOSH IS THE MAN. Dude is playing like a baller. Maybe it's too much too soon, but maybe it isn't. He hasn't gotten caught at all. At first, and in confessionals people mentioned being wary but that has already gone away. Josh has the most connections/bonds on the tribe, is an aggressive player and really doing a lot well. I think he's showing insane potential for this being his first game? This is the sort of play that you can see carrying its way for a long time: wolves really don't get caught much in the early days of ORGs.

Emily: I LOVE HER SHE IS SO FUN. I HATE THAT PEOPLE WANT HER OUT I HOPE HER BOND WITH JOSH IS GOOD ENOUGH TO KEEP HER SAFE! She's my erica, I think. I really want her to do well because she has shown insane potential, she just really needs to watch her back because Sam is SHARPENING THAT KNIFE.

Lee: Seems fine. Hope he kicks it up! He has a lot of untapped potential.

[kilby]

Green Tribe: This is one of the best tribes ever. The insane levels of fun between these people is sooooooooo good. Silas/Jordan/Elyse are maybe my favourite 3 on the entire cast, and they seem aligned! Nicoole serves as a fun villain, Kami as a cipher for ORG vets but with a really fun personality and Jack the stereotypical guy who does well in games - but his charm failing him. This is a tribe ripe for good story telling and its only just begun.

The tribe call being dominated by Jack/Nicole/Kami only for that to make Elyse/Silas/Jordan bond really well is SO cute and unconventional. This is a story of quiet people being overlooked, and I hope it amounts to something!!!     

Jordan: THE BEST CASTING ON THE SEASON. The bouncy castle followed by the random ass yacht club he filmed at, his really fascinating friendship with Elyse, his smarmy but sweet exterior?! He's shady, but in a way you can't help but love. He has completely sold me on him and I'm now the president of his fan club. He's such an oddball and has a VERY unique charisma. I don't think we were *wrong* preseason about him, but we didn't see the upside of being a little unconventional could provide. People like him because he is a ton of fun! Him being quiet on the call seems to have helped him. I hope he wins!

Elyse: She's the protagonist of this whole thing. The "Straight man", Bill murray type of this tribe of lunatics. She just is reacting to her surroundings, and her reactions colour the narrative. Her bond with Silas especially is AMAZING. They wallpost at eachother, bounce off eachother in really fun ways and its not a duo I anticipated at all. This is a stephen/jt type bond and I really hope it holds long term (and includes Jordan!). Elyse is playing quite well and I'm very proud of how she's doing! 

Jack: omg his arc is FUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN. I hope he votes in the minority or doesn't get his way, but stays. Devon on the RT described him as being as charming as devon wants to be: and I agree! But its amazing how that backfired. He played to the wrong type of people. They found him cocky, overbearing. His brand didn't work at all, and that is a fun story because he hasn't really done anything *wrong*. He's the jock at a party of nerds and he doesn't realize they think he's the lame one. 

Nicole BLAH probably ruins it somehow

Kami: should be very afraid of being a compromise boot.

[fabi]

My first impression on the Sadani tribe (which is NOT a BAD tribe name)

Biniam: Biniam is really the positive SHOCK of the tribe for me so far. He came across super likeable during the first call and mashed well with the others. He semmed to really likes Sam so those two are gonna be close and he is in the Jeb's Bush alliance with Sam/Emily/Josh. I honestly think he is in the best position in this tribe at the moment, which I would have not thought before the game started.

Emily: Emily was way more loud and active than I would have imagined to be honest. She talked a lot about her Life ORG experience, which put people like Sam off a bit. I think For the first round at least she is in a decent spot, being part of the alliance and having Josh as a close ally.

Erica: Erica was honestly underwhelming. She was more quiet than i would have expected and she did not seem to have talked to people much after the first tribe call. So far she seems on the outs and could be the easy scapegoat on this tribe, should they lose the first challenge.

Josh: I really did not expect Josh to play that aggressive right from the start! He was one of the driving forces in the first tribe call and after that he had an one-on-one call with alomost every person on his tribe. Some people would say that is playing way too hard too fast, but it can also work in his favor when he is putting in all this work. I think he is solid for the first vote at least and I honestly could see him even going further, not because people neccessarily like him but because they wanna use him as a meat shield.

Lee: Lee for sure did not have the best start you can have. He was way too late for the call and missed connecting with people. Josh later told him he is on the bottom already, so Lee has to put in some work real fast! I think he could be in danger the first tribal because Josh is gunning for him and also Sam has him ranked at 5th out of 5.

Sam: Well I gotta say Sam came across very likeable in the first tribe call. In her confessionals however we saw Slytherin-Sam and I am still not sure if I like that. But personal feelings aside I feel like Sam is in a good position on this tribe. She is in the alliance of 4 with Biniam/Emily/Josh and has Biniam as her ride or die. She also has Josh as her meat shield and I think so far no one is thinking of targetting her.



Overall I am really hoping that this tribe can avoid tribal as often as possible because it has some great characters in it. So far it looks like we have a 4-person alliance consisting of Biniam/Emily/Josh/Sam that will make the decision for the first vote. Then we have also Sam/Biniam as a duo and I could see Josh/Emily becoming a duo. Erica is kinda non-existent so far and Lee has to put in a lot of work to get in a better position in this game.

RANKING BASED ON NIGHT 1
1. Biniam (+3)
2. Josh (-1)
3. Sam (+2)
4. Emily (-2)
5. Erica (-2)
6. Lee (=)

[kilby]

NVM elyse is cancelled for wanting to pregame final 2 with Sam

[malkon]

I have finally finished the day 1 Sadani (Dasani) call and have my thoughts compiled pretty well about this tribe.

I didn't expect Biniam to be as charismatic as he was. He was probably the standout shocker to me. The fact that he's solidified a solid bond with Sam is majorly impressive and the fact that he recognizes how to downplay his threat level is great. He's calm, cool, collected, and recognizes exactly that he will vibe better with Lee and Erica as opposed to Josh and Emily. All-in-all a smart player who is doing everything perfectly on this first tribe. I'm so thrilled my pre game assessment was incorrect about him.

Sam is fabulous. 10/10 character. She knows what she wants and goes for it. The only thing that I think separates her from Biniam is threat level and abrasiveness at this point. She seems like the perfect person to rub people the wrong way and hide behind, which Biniam is doing and is perfectly doing it. Otherwise she's playing a fantastic game and knows she could go with either Josh/Emily or Lee/Erica. She's sitting in the driver's seat and I think she's just gonna coast on it. Amazing.

Lee is great, but also knows his position is precarious. I'm really really hoping he and Sam connect and form a tight bond because I think Biniam likes him more than the other three of Erica/Emily/Josh. He doesn't benefit as much because he's already in the limelight for missing part of the call and then being at work when he was in the call. His saving grace is going to be that Sam and Biniam are playing a stellar long term game and he'd better latch on to it. I think he will and once he does he will be well off on this tribe. If he doesn't, I worry.

Erica. Oh Erica. I love her so much. Endure 8 with her was an experience I will never forget. That being said she was not personable or vocal in a tribe call. This is probably one of the worst starting tribes for her because she's with a bunch of stronger, more social players. The one thing she has going for her is Sam and Biniam don't want to work with Josh/Emily. If Erica can just...pull it together and figure that out and join up with them, I give her high odds of getting off this tribe. If she doesn't...we might be looking at first boot energy. I love her, but I have to be real, she's not starting off well.

Josh is way too aggresive out of the gate. He automatically thinks he has Sam and Biniam on his side, and based off that video he does not. This is dangerous because delusional players usually don't take fallout well when they lose. I think he is either in for first boot or a rude awakening. I don't know what he will do if Sam and Biniam go with Lee and Erica like I suspect they will. I really don't. I think he and Emily are in T R O U B L E on this tribe and their best shot is to try to survive to a swap and get maybe better or more understanding allies...

Emily is in a similar boat to Josh, I think the difference between her and Josh is that she's not AS aggressive as Josh. I think this might help her survive the first vote over him, but I don't think it bodes well if they go to more than one TC. She did come across a bit brash, but I think they will keep her around for her survivor experience that might help them in challenges. Aside from that, she and Josh are in a similar boat and it worries me greatly.

1. Biniam
2. Sam
3. Lee
4. Emily
5. Erica
6. Josh

[kilby]

ABBY IS SO GOOD I CANT BELIEVE WE DIDN'T TALK ABOUT HER IN THE ROUNDTABLE MUCH.

Her latest confessional is a ton of fun! I hope her/shannon/georgina does become a thing. The more we learn about Orange tribe the more we have to be impressed with GEORGINA, I think. She really is playing a masterful game here with seemingly everyone in her corner. Hope she chooses to work with Abby.

Surprised at how little Jenny is coming up as someone people want to work with? Love her, obviously, and her videos always ending halfway through is SO funny. I think she'll be fine but it isn't the domination I expected from Jenny

[devon]

Elyse S U C K S

An essay by Chris Hardwick

We tried to organize this season with minimal pregame connections, to give everyone an authentic experience. But to be clear, I think pregame familiarity shouldn't count against casting a certain set of two people if they:

(a) will not automatically target each other based on past experiences
(b) will not automatically align with each other based on past experiences

If (a) and (b) are satisfied, then the relationship is effectively the same as two newbies meeting each other. However, this relies on each person refraining from being a dumbass about those experiences.

Sam and Elyse's history is as follows:
{A}
- They were on a swap tribe together briefly
- We (Sam, Elyse, me, +3) thought we had a 6-1 vote against some dude
- I play an idol at tribal, Sam then idols the guy we thought the vote was against
- Vote count: 4 votes me, 3 votes for some dude - all negated
- Sam's group votes out Elyse on the revote

{B}
- Post-game, they were very friendly in the season's snapchat group

If only {A} was true, then (a) might not be the case and they probably wouldn't have been cast together. If only {B} was true, then (b) might not be the case and they probably wouldn't have been cast together. But since {A} and {B} are both true, I think a reasonable person in either Sam or Elyse's shoes would approach the other with some openness but some caution as well...

...As any stranger should do with any other stranger!

If a person in Elyse's shoes were to decide that {A} + {B} = she should go to the end with Sam unconditionally, that person would suck.

Elyse has decided based on {A} + {B} that she should go to the end with Sam unconditionally.

Elyse sucks.

Thank you for reading my essay.

[malkon]

Feb 2, 2020 22:17:26 GMT -5 malkon said:

I have finally finished the day 1 Sadani (Dasani) call and have my thoughts compiled pretty well about this tribe.

I didn't expect Biniam to be as charismatic as he was. He was probably the standout shocker to me. The fact that he's solidified a solid bond with Sam is majorly impressive and the fact that he recognizes how to downplay his threat level is great. He's calm, cool, collected, and recognizes exactly that he will vibe better with Lee and Erica as opposed to Josh and Emily. All-in-all a smart player who is doing everything perfectly on this first tribe. I'm so thrilled my pre game assessment was incorrect about him.

Sam is fabulous. 10/10 character. She knows what she wants and goes for it. The only thing that I think separates her from Biniam is threat level and abrasiveness at this point. She seems like the perfect person to rub people the wrong way and hide behind, which Biniam is doing and is perfectly doing it. Otherwise she's playing a fantastic game and knows she could go with either Josh/Emily or Lee/Erica. She's sitting in the driver's seat and I think she's just gonna coast on it. Amazing.

Lee is great, but also knows his position is precarious. I'm really really hoping he and Sam connect and form a tight bond because I think Biniam likes him more than the other three of Erica/Emily/Josh. He doesn't benefit as much because he's already in the limelight for missing part of the call and then being at work when he was in the call. His saving grace is going to be that Sam and Biniam are playing a stellar long term game and he'd better latch on to it. I think he will and once he does he will be well off on this tribe. If he doesn't, I worry.

Erica. Oh Erica. I love her so much. Endure 8 with her was an experience I will never forget. That being said she was not personable or vocal in a tribe call. This is probably one of the worst starting tribes for her because she's with a bunch of stronger, more social players. The one thing she has going for her is Sam and Biniam don't want to work with Josh/Emily. If Erica can just...pull it together and figure that out and join up with them, I give her high odds of getting off this tribe. If she doesn't...we might be looking at first boot energy. I love her, but I have to be real, she's not starting off well.

Josh is way too aggresive out of the gate. He automatically thinks he has Sam and Biniam on his side, and based off that video he does not. This is dangerous because delusional players usually don't take fallout well when they lose. I think he is either in for first boot or a rude awakening. I don't know what he will do if Sam and Biniam go with Lee and Erica like I suspect they will. I really don't. I think he and Emily are in T R O U B L E on this tribe and their best shot is to try to survive to a swap and get maybe better or more understanding allies...

Emily is in a similar boat to Josh, I think the difference between her and Josh is that she's not AS aggressive as Josh. I think this might help her survive the first vote over him, but I don't think it bodes well if they go to more than one TC. She did come across a bit brash, but I think they will keep her around for her survivor experience that might help them in challenges. Aside from that, she and Josh are in a similar boat and it worries me greatly.

1. Biniam
2. Sam
3. Lee
4. Emily
5. Erica
6. Josh

After watching Sam's confessionals, I'm going to retract a couple things.

I think Erica is in major trouble. She always has an issue with connections, and if she tells Sam she's gonna show up for a call and doesn't and this sinks her with Sam, I officially think she's at the bottom after this. 

And because of this, I think Lee is now in trouble because without Erica, his value as an ally to Sam on this tribe goes down. Plus she made note that she was keeping her eye on him.

Finally, Emily appears to be in more trouble than Josh unlike what I speculated before.

My new rankings:

1. Biniam
2. Sam
3. Josh
4. Emily
5. Lee
6. Erica...which depresses me beyond belief.

[devon]

VL on Sam potentially targeting Erica / Sam as a whole:

SPOILER: Click to show

Mike, 9:56 PM
LMAO


Charity, 9:56 PM
I literally dont get what Erica said that could give off mastermind vibes


Mike, 9:56 PM
Do tell


Kilby, 9:56 PM
sam is just so eager to seem and feel impressive

you can tell that is what drives her


Spencer, 9:56 PM

sam is just so eager to seem and feel impressive
Kilby, Today at 9:56 PM
100%

9:56 PM
it's less egregious though because she is, in fact, impressive


Spencer, 9:56 PM
That’s sam


Malkon, 9:57 PM

I literally dont get what Erica said that could give off mastermind vibes
Charity, Today at 9:56 PM
I don't either, I just love Erica because she's literally the greatest worst ever


Kilby, 9:57 PM
shes v prideful - see her talking about her 2nd grade teacher thinking shes super cool!


Spencer, 9:57 PM
Sams a great player who cares about being seen as a great player

Which like I can’t knock that


Kilby, 9:59 PM
stuff like that just doesnt have purpose other than to humblebrag?

im the same way i get it


Cmack311, 10:00 PM

Sams a great player who cares about being seen as a great player
Spencer Flohr, Today at 9:57 PM
By the VL or by other players? Because one is good, the other not so much


Malkon, 10:00 PM
yes



Andra, 10:01 PM
I honestly think my feelings toward her are because I can not relate to that mindset. She may be amazing but I'm turned off by the self promotion - and it devalues moves she makes or things she says for me.

and maybe it's because I envy the confidence actually


Kilby, 10:02 PM
as the VL's resident egomaniac i quite like it but it will lead her to do things to make her ego feel better (such as killing erica), or all my horrible moves I make constantly.



Malkon, 10:02 PM
I just remember Erica telling me she loves her cats so much she would dump her boyfriend for them if she ever had to pick, literally the first thing I ever heard her say.


Torry, 10:03 PM

and maybe it's because I envy the confidence actually
Andra Feldman, Today at 10:01 PM
I definitely think this can be like a socialized thing for women. I feel the same way



Cmack311, 10:03 PM
Sam does seem like a fun teacher though



Torry, 10:03 PM
She’s an amazing teacher


Cmack311, 10:03 PM
I wonder if when a student is bad, she makes them take a vote to banish them from the classroom and to the office


Kilby, 10:03 PM
can she teach me how to dougie



Torry, 10:03 PM
She works with marginalized communities and is just 🥰🥰


Kilby, 10:04 PM


Jayden, 10:04 PM
Kilby actually called Sam targeting Erica in the Erica roundtable exactly.


Kilby, 10:04 PM
i will like her more when she is beheading nicole


Jayden, 10:04 PM
The foresight.


Kilby, 10:04 PM
yea i did

cuz im just like sam!


and its what id do lol


Torry, 10:04 PM

sam is just so eager to seem and feel impressive
Kilby, Today at 9:56 PM
I feel like giving off this vibe is big yikes in survivor


Jayden, 10:05 PM

and its what id do lol
Kilby, Today at 10:04 PM
You'd target Erica? Gasp.


Kilby, 10:05 PM
does she give off the vibe though?

like, paralel universe dan not knowing who she was?

definitely.


Cmack311, 10:05 PM
Kilby had so many hot takes and most of them are spot on


Torry, 10:05 PM

does she give off the vibe though?
Kilby, Today at 10:05 PM
100%. I said it in my first confessional when we played together

10:06 PM
Although I think Sam does a good job of limiting the wanting-to-impress vibes to confessionals/viewer-facing stuff, I think Kilby's right that the attitude probably infects her strategic decisions


Kilby, 10:06 PM
yea

good players can hide that stuff and seem great when wanted


Kilby, 10:06 PM
but like, my confessionals in games are just like sam.

my first game the hosts roasted me for being cocky as fuck while making good-looking moves that didnt do anything


but like, my confessionals in games are just like sam.

my first game the hosts roasted me for being cocky as fuck while making good-looking moves that didnt do anything

im guessing sam comes off like, friendly and nice but people get a feeling theres ~more to her, and want to keep an eye on her

10:08 PM

im guessing sam comes off like, friendly and nice but people get a feeling theres ~more to her, and want to keep an eye on her
Kilby, Today at 10:07 PM
fwiw I think Torry was the only one that had her seriously clocked in XTC

Kilby, 10:09 PM
ye like to be clear with that point, i think just people havign an eye on you doesnt lose you trust or anything

10:10 PM
I'm watching a call between her and Josh right now, and she's doing a good job of playing the Natalie-White-like sidekick
just like, agreeing with everything he says, etc

Andra, 10:10 PM
josh is an easy target lol


Kilby, 10:10 PM
i feel like me and sam would be final 2


Kilby, 10:13 PM
i really want to see inevitible jenny vs sam

[charity]

THOUGHTS SO FAR:



Varia: They seem to be the most cookie cutter tribe of the bunch. There was a core 3 of Kollyn/Carley/Austin made, with CJ as the very clear 4th. Carley and Austin, however, seem to have more loyalty to CJ than they do to their own alliance, which speaks to how great her social game is. That leaves Waylon and Minga on the bottom, and both low key REALLY suck from an entertainment and game perspective. Minga is rubbing people the wrong way, like when she announced "Kollyn" aka Waylon as the first boot. Waylon talks sometimes but not nearly enough to make an impact. I could see either of these two leaving first, and honestly I wouldnt mind.



Sadani: Probably the tribe I want to lose the least, because everyone has something to offer this game. Sam/Biniam are forming as the clear duo, and both are playing pretty diabolical games individually which I think nobody suspects. Emily and Josh have both been pegged as "playing too hard," but Sam and Biniam seem very contempt letting these two believe that they are running the tribe when they're really not. That leaves Lee/Erica on the bottom. There is some huge conspiracy about Erica being a secret Survivor mastermind because people were rooting for her on the page... like no... people root for Erica because they LIKE Erica, but their overthinking could cause Erica to leave. Then you have Lee, which the tribe seems pretty mixed on. Biniam seemed keen on using Lee, while Josh seems to want Lee out first. Lee really needs to insert himself into convos in these next few days otherwise he's toast. Even though Sam is in a great spot, I am absolutely furious at her/Elyse for saying they would run to each other if they found themselves in a swap.... like huge yikes. That's an instant pass to get people to turn on you.



Cavaso: Like I just mentioned, I am really annoyed at Elyse for valuing a pregame connection in Sam, because I realllly want her ride or die to be Silas. They seem to have the single strongest relationship on the tribe, which puts Elyse/Silas in a good position. Speaking of Silas, he seems to be the most active on his tribe. His constant pessimism is so entertaining, and I laughed when he maxed out in the challenge.. but ugh I want the guy to do well I think I like his quirkiness. Besides Elyse, Silas seems to like Jordan and he wants to pull him in to some trio. I love how weird Jordan is! I think he's doing everything he needs to in order to get in with the right people. Silas seems to dislike Jack, but Elyse seems to like Jack, so I wonder if this tribe goes to tribal if it would be Jack who leaves or not. Jack is doing okay... but really needs to step up and personally call people. I would say overall, Kami is really slacking on the social aspect. People admit that they like Kami, but she could be the easy vote... so disappointing. Then there's Nicole, I think she's doing just enough to be safe... just enough is boring yet effective. She killed the challenge though, which I respect.



Razu: Razu is the hardest tribe for me to predict, because they seem to be very "I love everyone" people. I would say that Georgina is in a great position, in fact.... I don't think any of the girls have anything to worry about. They've been doing a lot of small talk and everyone seems to like them. I think Robbie is pretty much safe too, he killed the challenge and comes off as soooo likable. Robbie's downfall could be his total ignorance for Survivor, but I forsee people scooping him up. Miles seems to socially be the most invisible, so I could see this tribe setting on him to leave. I wish we saw more social interactions from him. Shannon dropped the ball on the challenge, but I think a couple people think he's likable? Like I said, it's too early to call anything with this tribe.

[devon]

FINALLY some idol progress. Austin and Elyse are each at stage 3/4 of the hunt. No one else in the entire game is even close to cracking the idol board. As the architect of this idol hunt, my heart is full. Elyse is officially un-cancelled...unless she gives the idol to Sam at some point.

Also, Austin was an idol-hunting king in Survivor BC and the fact that it's carried over into ORGs for him is amazing. This has been a clear-cut OTTP5 round for him.

On an unrelated note, based on Josh's latest confessional I think he's the most likely person to play himself out of the game based on the twist. He has a convoluted idea about making Lee think that there's an all-girls alliance, and the end result is somehow supposed to be that the girls team up and Josh-Biniam-Emily will get to throw their votes. I don't know what is going to happen if/when Sadani goes to tribal, but it will NOT be that. LOL.

[kilby]

I don't want Elyse to find it because will give to sam.

Apparently an all girla alliance will form on Orange!? Please! Jenny/Abby/Georgina are all top tier

[kilby]

omg we stan Elyse for being a typical Iowan going to the caucus

[devon]

OKAY, ELYSE PROBABLY DOESN'T S U C K

A Self-Rebuttal by Chris Hardwick



What a round for Elyse. Starts out as a super-intriguing player that's clearly invested and wants to do well, despite her lack of overt enthusiasm at times. 

Then we get a MASSIVE heel turn right away, when she says that she'd go to the end with Sam despite making good relationships on her own tribe. She even surpasses Nicole in terms of Viewer's Lounge apathy.

But then tonight, she leaves literally the entire cast other than Austin in the dust and BEASTS the four-stage idol hunt. You can just see how genuinely proud she is of herself:



Until Sam leaves the game, or Elyse changes her mind about Sam as an auto-F2, Elyse still isn't the hero of the season - that's still Austin. But she's not the villain of the season anymore either - that's still Nicole or Sam. I see Elyse as being our complex/mixed character of the season (edgic is normally dumb, but I scored this as a CPM5 round for the ages.)

So as of now, I'm back to being #TeamElyse - but with the qualification that if she actually goes through with committing seppuku for Sam then I get to retroactively retract any praise for her.